Key Points:
- Bitcoin and Ethereum options worth $3.5B expired as geopolitical tensions drive market caution.
- Ethereum shows higher implied volatility than Bitcoin, offering near-term trading opportunities post-expiry.
- Bitcoin sentiment remains strong on social media, despite price dip and declining short-term momentum.
On June 13, over $3.5 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options reached expiration. According to Greeks.live, 28,000 BTC options expired with a Put Call Ratio of 0.9, a max pain point of $106,000, and a notional value of $2.93 billion. At the same time, 244,000 ETH options expired with a Put Call Ratio of 1.13, a max pain point of $2,650, and a total value of $620 million.
This week’s expiry comes during a period of rising volatility and growing risk-off sentiment. A reported attack by Israel on Iran has led to heightened geopolitical uncertainty, contributing to a market-wide pullback. Bitcoin has dropped over 2% in the last 24 hours, with the total cryptocurrency market cap falling by 4.8% to $3.39 trillion.
Volatility Metrics Suggest Limited Short-Term Momentum
Implied volatility (IV) for Bitcoin remains low, while Ethereum’s IV has climbed, suggesting traders see more near-term movement potential in ETH. Realized volatility (RV) has declined sharply, leading to an elevated volatility risk premium (VRP). Although VRP eased slightly after today’s correction, it remains at a relatively high level, signaling restrained market activity.
Moreover, the ratio between IV and RV suggests that options premiums are pricing in more risk than the market is currently experiencing. With major block traders adding to their put positions, analysts view this as a defensive posture.
Technical Indicators Show a Possible Trend Shift
Bitcoin is trading at $105,014, showing a 2.12% decline in the last 24 hours, based on Coingecko data. The 7-day performance remains positive at 0.99%. From a technical standpoint, BTC has fallen below its 20-day moving average. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending below 50, often interpreted as a sign of weakening bullish momentum.
Meanwhile, Ethereum is priced at $2,549.25, posting a 7% daily drop, though still up 2.85% over the week. Trading volume has increased, but not enough to confirm a full trend reversal. Current price action suggests caution, especially after the expiry of major ETH option contracts.
According to Santiment, positive BTC mentions are more than double negative mentions—reaching their highest level since the U.S. presidential election seven months ago.
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